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  “This means we will have $200 a barrel oil,” said Mohammed H. A. Abudawood, a prominent businessman and member of the Jeddah Economic Forum
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 More options Jun 22 2008, 3:39 pm
From: mike.longenec...@gmail.com
Date: Sun, 22 Jun 2008 12:39:14 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Sun, Jun 22 2008 3:39 pm
Subject: “This means we will have $200 a barrel oil,” said Mohammed H. A. Abudawood, a prominent businessman and member of the Jeddah Economic Forum
At Oil Conference, Saudis Offer Slight Rise in Production
By ROBERT F. WORTH and JAD MOUAWAD
Published: June 23, 2008

JIDDA, Saudi Arabia — An emergency energy summit meeting convened
hastily here on Sunday underscored how few options the world has to
push oil prices down from their record levels, as producers and
consumers repeatedly emphasized starkly divergent views on both the
fundamental causes and possible remedies for the current energy
crisis.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia at the energy summit meeting in Jidda.
The one-day meeting in this coastal town on the Red Sea ended with the
promise of a modest increase in Saudi oil production that is unlikely
to stem the most-rapid run-up in oil prices ever. Beyond that,
participants called for both more transparency and more regulation in
energy markets, more investments in both production and refining
capacity, and more cooperation between producers and consumers.

For Saudi Arabia, the meeting was a rare foray into the spotlight, and
an opportunity to underscore that the oil-rich kingdom was aware of
growing anger and frustration caused by surging prices in oil-
importing countries.

A seven-fold increase in the cost of oil since 2002 is causing growing
economic and political pain in both industrialized countries and the
developing world.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who called for this meeting just two
weeks ago, addressed the oil and energy ministers of 35 nations in a
vast ballroom, saying he understood the pain that $140 oil was causing
across the globe. He confirmed an expected increase in Saudi
production by 200,000 barrels a day. News of that was leaked earlier
this week, and was already factored into the still-surging market.

Some analysts and oil traders had expected a much larger production
increase from Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter.

But King Abdullah and the British prime minister, Gordon Brown, who
walked into the high-ceilinged hall together as a military band
played, soon offered totally different perspectives on the problem and
how to approach it.

The king spoke of the “selfish interests” of speculators as a main
reason oil prices have risen 40 percent this year, urging the gathered
ministers to “rule out biased rumors and to reach the real causes for
the increase in price.”

But Mr. Brown squarely pointed to fundamental economics and “oil
demand rising faster than supply.” The U.S. Energy secretary, Samuel
W. Bodman, put it more bluntly in a meeting with reporters, saying
“there is no evidence we can find that speculators are driving futures
prices.”

Both sides spoke at length about the need for compromise, with Mr.
Brown calling for a “global new deal” that would allow a “greater
commonality of interest” between consumers and producers, including
greater freedom to invest in each other’s markets.

But asked how all this would help remedy the worst oil crisis in
decades, some ministers seemed baffled and uneasy.

“Let me ask you,” said India’s oil minister, Murli Deora, when a group
of reporters asked him for his views on how to address the crisis.
“what else can we do to bring harmony between buyers and sellers?”

Despite the urgency that brought hundreds of participants here, Jeroen
van der Veer, the chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, summed up the
difficulties faced by oil producers in dealing with record prices:
“There are no overnight solutions.”

The king also called for OPEC, the global oil cartel, to pledge $1
billion to help developing nations deal with the effects of soaring
energy costs, to which the Saudis would contribute an undetermined
share. He also offered an additional $500 million in soft loans from
Saudi Arabia.

While reaping record profits, Saudi Arabia is also growing
increasingly concerned that oil current prices might eventually dampen
economic growth around the world and lead to lower oil demand, as is
already happening in the United States and other developed countries.

The current prices could make alternative fuels much more viable and
threaten the long-term prospects of the oil-based economy.

To alleviate fears over the supply of oil in the future, one of the
main factors behind the rally in oil prices, Saudi officials said the
kingdom is able to increase its production in the long term. The Saudi
oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said that Saudi Arabia would be capable of
adding an additional 2.5 million barrels a day to its output beyond
the current expansion plans the kingdom is completing.

Saudi Arabia increasing its production capacity to 12.5 million
barrels a day in a $90 billion expansion plan that is scheduled for
completion next year. Beyond that, Mr. Naimi said that oil experts in
the kingdom had identified additional opportunities to expand
production, if needed, to 15 million barrels a day in future years.

Mr. Naimi said this additional capacity would be brought online only
“if and when crude oil demand levels warrant their development.” He
used the same language in saying the kingdom could add even more than
the new 200,000 barrels per day increase in the short term.

The Saudis have already said they believe current demand is being met,
despite the high prices — suggesting that high prices alone might not
be enough to warrant the increase in supply.

Saudi Arabia has already boosted its production by 300,000 barrels a
day, or about 3 percent, to 9.45 million barrels a day last month. But
that has had little impact on soaring prices. Oil futures in New York
have gained more than 40 percent this year. They rose 2 percent to
$134.62 a barrel before the meeting on Friday.

“There is a very clear difference of opinion on key issues
underpinning the high price of oil,” said Raad Alkadiri, an energy
analyst at PFC Energy, a consulting firm, who was present in Jidda.
“It’s not clear that anything you heard today is going to reverse
sentiment. One thing is clear: You are not going to wake up tomorrow
and find that oil prices have dropped 20 or 30 dollars.”

To some, the upshot of the meeting was clear.

“This means we will have $200 a barrel oil,” said Mohammed H. A.
Abudawood, a prominent businessman and member of the Jeddah Economic
Forum, after the speeches were finished and the delegates began
drifting out of the room.

Robert F. Worth reported from Jidda, and Jad Mouawad from New York.


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